Grading The Start to The Season

Elliot Smith0:26If there's one thing you love about being a grown individual, it's that you don't have to get graded anymore. Well, you do today. This is the ArsenalVision Podcast. My name's Elite Smith Blackman's gonna that's right, you're getting grade. No, you're not. Unless you're playing for Arsenal. And if you are, thanks for listening. We really appreciate you for being here. We love you. Not just because you pull on the shirt, but because you listen to the podcast. We're grading the start to the season today, everybody. That's right. Player performances, game performances. We're gonna rethink our season and why suddenly the title is no longer within our grasp. Is it too early to give up? I would submit it's never too early to give up. But we will see if our guest today agrees. So we're gonna grade the season. We got some fun stuff. We'll talk a little bit about the Brighton game to get started. But we are in the middle of a 16-week international break. And that means it's time for really interesting things, like the key match officials or whatever they're called, panel saying, five for five, absolutely the wrong decision to award the penalty against Konsa. But not wrong for VAR not to intervene. Just sensible, normal football stuff like that. Here with me now is Lewis Ambrose. Hello, Lewis.

Lewis Ambrose1:31Hello Elliot. I you've come in on fire today. I like it.

Elliot Smith1:35Do you like so so I'm a logical person most of the time. I can I can be emotional, but I like to believe that I think through things what's fair, what's just and you know, I d I was an attorney briefly, so I have that legal background. And I think it makes complete sense that if a panel of people review an incident and all of them agree that an error was made, that it makes complete sense that they would say that the error, therefore, should not have been overturned. Would you would you agree with that? Is that that square with you?

Lewis Ambrose2:01Yeah, you'll be you'll be judged by a jury of your peers, but then there'll be another judgment to decide on their judgment as well afterwards.

Elliot Smith2:09It it's funny, right? It's like it's a ruling that only pro ref and the refereeing organizations that control the Premier League could come up with. It like if someone dropped out of space and they're like, people seem really angry with referees in the Premier League, what is that all about? I'd just show them this and I'd be like and what the problem is what would happen is like if they're like alien robots, you'd see like little steam come out of their head and then the circuits would pop out of their eyes and they would all just fall over dead. That's how you kill aliens. You explain to them the ruling of the key match incident panel. Lewis, we have a new patron segment we're gonna roll out during this international break. New concept. I think it'd be perfect for it. You wanna know what it's called? Bad takes. We're yeah. Yeah.

Lewis Ambrose2:51I've got I've got loads yeah, I've got loads. I'll go t I'll go toe to toe with you.

Elliot Smith2:57Well, I was thinking about this, right? Like the thing about doing a podcast, and everybody listening knows this because statistically speaking, about 95% of you listening have a podcast of your own as well. You sometimes shy away from giving the takes that you know might not be good ones because you don't want people to kinda get angry with you or think you've lost your mind. But we all we all have some football takes in our head that we're like, I maybe believe that, but I'm not prepared to share it due to the ridicule I'll get. So bad takes is gonna be a safe space to trial and workshop some of the ideas that aren't ready for prime time, that you would be laughed at, that if you were at the pub saying them your friends would throw their beer at you or say, What are you talking about? You're an idiot. I think there should be a space. For sharing those ideas, the ideas that are playing at the corners of your mind. So you're welcome to come on it if you have any of those. But I think I can think of a few people in the orbit of this podcast, maybe even the host, who is perfect for that episode.

Lewis Ambrose3:47Yeah, I'm already they're already running through my head right now. You you mentioned in the pub. The pub is where I would use my bad takes because then it's not on record. Like I wouldn't drop the bad takes into the group chat unless I did it in a sarcastic kind of way. But the pub is actually the perfect place for the bad takes. Also everyone forgets the next day what your bad takes were. But yeah, I'll I'll come I'll come armed with plenty of takes for that, I'm sure.

Elliot Smith4:14Well, one of the reasons I kinda wanted to roll it out at this time is I think when the let's be honest, when the season is going on, people are so heated and so emotional that if you say those bad takes, people just aren't ready emotionally to deal with them. But during a three week international break, when we've all taken a bit of a deep breath and we're sitting in a reasonable position, I think people are more prepared to accept them. So bad takes coming to a patron podcast near you, champions fifty is a code if you want to get it for a couple of quid and see what the worst takes are. Just like maybe you just sign up just to hear those. So you can throw them back in our face when we get in a fight on social media. All right, enough of that. By the way, unfortunately Clive can't appear on that because as we know, he has no bad takes. That's that's really the problem. But but I also don't want Paul to be the only person who comes on that pod. So we're gonna we're gonna need other people. Okay, all jokes aside. Lewis, before we get into grading, the start to the season, you did a feature on the Arsenal YouTube channel, which is, by the way, what a glow up for the Arsenal YouTube. Ars Blog, thank you. Yeah, not the Arsenal YouTube channel. That thing's a mess. No, no, not till you comb your hair. No, the Ars Blog YouTube channel, incredible glow up,

Lewis Ambrose5:12Yeah. Not the Arsenal YouTube channel. They won't they would not let me anywhere near that, I'm sure.

Elliot Smith5:21Lots of good stuff going on over there. And you did a tactico video, which is all the rage on the Brighton game. We did something a little less polished, but Clive and I did a rewatch of the first half. And I think, given that we've been so good for so long. It's always fun to be like, let's rewatch the North London Derby where we smashed a bad Spurs. But these are the games where you can watch and really test stress test your views and your opinions without just getting into defensive mode. Here's why everybody's take on it was wrong. What did you learn from the exercise of breaking down the Brighton game? What are some of the key takeaways that maybe surprised you or you think run contrary to how it's being discussed?

Lewis Ambrose6:03Yeah, so I'd say firstly just my so what I do when I analyse games when I do write the pieces on Ars blog or my own stuff or yeah I rewatch games I rewatch all our games anyway. I've done for a very, very, very long number of years. It's just a habit that I'm into. It'll be like Sunday evening when we've played that weekend or Monday morning and like I'll since I was studying I would rewatch the Arsenal game. And very often watch it at two times speed and you kinda cut through all the replays and the close ups and that stuff which kinda pollutes your mind, I think, when you're trying to look at just the game and just the patterns. And something that's for the most part over the years emerged to me is with all the emotion taken out and when I know how the game's gonna end, when we've lost or drawn had a disappointing result, when I rewatch it, we were never as bad as I remembered, because I remember it being stressful and horrible and all the bad stuff sticks in your mind. Yeah, I didn't watch the I didn't rewatch those. Once was enough.

Elliot Smith7:04During the Emery era we were actually worse, by the way.

Lewis Ambrose7:11Once was enough. But yeah, so I think that's sort of like a general point. I'd probably say it's true for some of the really good games as well. We're probably never as good as you remember

Elliot Smith7:21I agree. Yeah.

Lewis Ambrose7:23It. You forget the missed chance, you forget when they went through on goal. So it's it's never too high, never too low. But yeah, I did rewatch this and I think like you and you and Clive did a rewatch as well. And I didn't think Arsenal were good, but I didn't think Arsenal were anywhere near as bad as it felt live in the moment on Saturday for sure. And on top of that came up against a team that played really well. I think that's another difficult thing, is we always get so focused on our own team and trying to pass like what happened because a team was good and what happened because a team was bad and you used to watch I don't know Guadiola's Man City and Clopp's Liverpool and we'd watch those and go like, my god, they're amazing and we'd never say that the opposition weren't good enough or did things wrong and when they lost it was they must be rubbish but then we'd give more credit, I think, to the opposition. Whereas when we lose we kind of shy away from giving credit to the opposition. There are two teams on the pitch, not just one. So

Lewis Ambrose8:25I d yeah, I think looking back and going through it, Saturday was a bit of a perfect storm of Arsenal not being at their best and coming up against an opponent that were at theirs and then still needed a couple of shots from range to go in to really push that advantage home, if you like.

Elliot Smith8:42Yeah. It's it's a tough game because there are phases of it where we were absolutely crap. After they score from the corner, i just forget the score line. Let's say you don't know the score and you don't see the goals and you just look at phases of the game. After they score from that corner, f forget anything you know about the game. The way Arsenal played in the next ten minutes, I've not seen us play that poorly, probably in the last couple of years. It is as bad as I can remember us being in any situation. We really did fall apart. We gave the ball away in the worst possible areas. I think we also started to be a weird team where we were subbing on combinations of players in positions that we wouldn't necessarily put them. Mikel Merino playing almost in a double pivot area. There was a lot of things that just went really wrong with how we finished that game. But it was also a situation where the game was decided at that point. Not to mention that, there could have been gloss on the score line too. Saka goes through clear 1v1 with the keeper. Kai goes through clear 1v1 with the keeper. Saka hits it straight at the keeper. Kai takes it on the half volley and it's saved. Should that game have been 3-2 at that point? That's not my point. My point is you can have gloss, you can have score lines that don't reflect what you expect the game to be. But what really struck me, having re-watched the first half,

Elliot Smith10:04And this is the point that I want to leave people with on this game. I think we were really, really good after 10 minutes. I think they gave us 10 minutes of pressure where we gave the ball away and made some dumb decisions, and then started to come to grips with it. Started to get past their press, started to get into the final third, started to transition better, created moments where we should have done much better in transition. And while I am not saying we battered them or we created a ton, that's not my point. My point is I think we went to a tough ground against a good team who was well up for it. We took their best punch for 10 minutes, didn't give any real chance away. And then for the rest of the balance of the half, I think we shaded it. And I think we came to grips with it. And what it left me with was actually, ironically, a real confidence in the quality of this team. Because I watched this team solve problems in real time on the pitch and get themselves back into the game and create openings and opportunities. It's not me saying it was our best day. What I'm saying is, unless a team can give us their best punch every time we face them and score two out-of-the-box goals, you're gonna have a real hard time beating us. Because in order for Brighton to beat us, they had to play at their absolute best, in my view, get us to do everything wrong in transition, and score two goals that I think on another day, if they miss them, we're not talking about those shots. So it is not so much that I'm saying.

Elliot Smith11:29We were amazing. It is me saying that I think we actually coped with that game pretty well and at halftime the two nil score line was not a reflection of a fairly evenly played game at that stage. The what happened after that, notwithstanding,

Lewis Ambrose11:43Yeah. No, I'd I pretty much agree. I'd place it more at fifteen minutes than ten minutes maybe.

Elliot Smith11:48There there's a moment where Raya gives the ball away cheaply and Rice has to come back and save him. Well, but you know the one I'm talking about, right? He rolls it

Lewis Ambrose11:53There are a few of those. Yep.

Elliot Smith11:56Out. And by the way, this is something that frustrates me with Raya. Sometimes when the game is really hot and we're under pressure, he doesn't always read the moment and

Lewis Ambrose12:03Stop, take a beat.

Elliot Smith12:04Yeah, he wants to just go, let's go. And I love that urgency to get up the pitch, but there are times you have to take the heat away. He rolls it out to a Brighton player, Rice has to come back, collect, and from that moment, ironically, the game kind of turns.

Lewis Ambrose12:15Yeah, there was one a few minutes after that, one to Timber as well, like the that stuck in my mind where you know your keeper claims the ball and we all know that if the other team have piled forward then that means you can hit them on the break. And and Raya does the exact same thing. He kind of rolls it out to Timber in a rush as if he wants to quickly get upfield, but when you stop it there, there are about three Brighton players forward in our final third, maybe four, and there are five or six Arsenal players back there and the if we hit them on the break there we do not outnumber them at all. There aren't gaps there to hit them on the break. And he's I appreciate that he's in a rush to get us upfield and get us moving. But yeah, there are moments and when you are away from home under the kosh, those are not the moments to accelerate the game. That's when you slow it down and take the sting out of it, which he didn't do particularly well. He wasn't the only one. You know, I think there were a few really weak performances. But yeah, I would break it down like this if anyone I don't think anyone's gonna put themselves through that first half hour again. But if any anyone wanted to, any of the real sickos out there like you and I, I would put it like this, if you paused the game at fifteen minutes and then told me Brighton went 2-0 up into half time, I would go, Yeah, yeah, makes sense. If you showed me minutes fifteen to thirty and I hadn't seen the first fifteen minutes and told me Brighton were two nil up at half time, I would go, what the fuck happened?

Elliot Smith13:40Yeah. Yeah.

Lewis Ambrose13:41It was the best fifteen minutes Arsenal played in the entire game ended with Pascal Gross pinging one in off the post from twenty-five yards. That's there's an element

Elliot Smith13:48Yeah. And then I think I think the same

Lewis Ambrose13:49Of bad luck. Like and it wasn't it wasn't particularly and I go through this in the Arsenal YouTube video, like i I don't think it was well defended, but it was the maximum amount of punishment that you could imagine for a situation that wasn't particularly well defended but also didn't leave Brighton with a real chance to score.

Elliot Smith14:11Well yeah, and th there's just I think part of the reason for this exercise too is because it's important to see is there a flaw or a weakness in Arsenal that was exploited that we need to be worried about? Or did Brighton give us their best punch, we punched back and they shaded it on those two chances. And I do think it's more the latter, and the only reason I think it's important to emphasize that is because if it's the former, if we were found out and really battered and they discovered a weakness in us, then we really have to dig into what that weakness is and how we fix it. I do think that there's an issue with Bruno that came up on the rewatch where he's not really a six. There's a moment where Bruno, the one where he just fires what is either a cross or a shot straight into the side netting or over the goal, but he's in acres of space in the box. He makes this really clever underlapping run into the box. It's really intelligently found. He's in a great spot and probably should do a lot better there. But it's the point that that position he winds up in, that's not really where Myles or Declan wind up, right? Well, what happens is then he has to sprint back into position and it takes him a while to get back and Brighton intelligently exploit the area of the pitch where he would be in, and he's out of puff by the time he gets back into his defensive shape and he's he's dropping off and walking. If Bruno is going to be someone that wants to roam ahead of the play more and get into goal scoring positions, I think that helps us.

Elliot Smith15:33But I do think that there are going to be teams that understand how that destabilizes our rest defense and take advantage of that. I'm not so much worried about him giving the ball away. Bruno will do that because he tries hard things and he gets some right and he gets some wrong. But I am a little curious what you think about where he stands on the pitch. There were a lot of times where he was ahead of Odegaard and Odegaard was deeper than him, and whether that's the dynamic we want, I'm not sure. But do you think that's something that comes up on the video? The the impact of our rest defense, especially if Bruno's gonna wander and Calafiori's gonna wander. Point at which you're going to have a really hard time covering all the space that they're not in,

Lewis Ambrose16:09Yeah, I a couple things I guess. Like I wrote my newsletter and like a newsletter on Substack. In the summer I wrote about Bruno before we signed him and statistically he profiles quite closely to Martin Odegaard. The Arsenal player he is statistically most similar to is not Declan Rice or Martin Zubimendi or Myles Lewis-Skelly, it is Martin Odegaard. And I hadn't really thought that before, but when it was clear we were probably gonna sign him and I went through the numbers and I saw him as a player that could maybe play instead of and not I think Arsenal have had issues playing without Martin Odegaard in the last few years, the last couple of years when he's had a lot of injuries. And I saw Bruno as a player who maybe solves some of that and can make Arsenal play in a slightly different way but not lose the things that Martin Odegaard does well when Odegaard can't play. So firstly, there's that. On the video I didn't talk about that rest defense element, but Bruno in the in the block and when the ball gets turned over, his instinct is to always defend what's in front of him. He he plays a bad pass and he chases it. And there's a he thinks a pass is gonna be played from one midfielder to another on the opposition, and he's hunting that pass before it's played. That's the Pascal Gross goal, is that.

Elliot Smith17:32Yep.

Lewis Ambrose17:32He closes down the same man that Declan Rice is close to anyway, who the ball doesn't even end up going to and helps open up the space that Gross then sort of drifts into and picks the ball up in lots of space. So I think my question with him especially with playing deeper, right, like you say, is can he defend what's behind him or think about defending what's behind him and not only always what's in front of him?

Elliot Smith18:00Yeah, and he's he's gonna have to. But I think the interesting thing is there are probably days, and this isn't because I don't wanna play with Martin Odegaard who until this game had been playing like one of the best players in the league, but there are going to be days where I think you can play Rice Subamendi and Bruno or Rice Myles and Bruno, you know, some combination of those groups and let Bruno have a little more of the advanced area to roam, to take the ball off people, to be combative, to make those underlapping runs with less impact to your rest defense, you know, and he can then be a pressing trigger, like counter pressing, right? Your point about chasing a lost ball. You chase a lost ball at the halfway line and don't get it, there's a lot of danger behind you. You chase a lost ball at the edge of the attacking third. It's not that you can't be played in behind, but that's a good counter pressing position to be in. I think like I'm no tactical. That's just kinda how I think about it. And and that is an interesting dynamic. And look, at home against weaker teams, it may be the case you say Rice, Bruno, and Odegaard's a great midfield. And you let both Odegaard and Bruno be a little bit more front-footed and let Rice do what Rice can do, which is cover a lot of ground. Away at a side that counterpresses and presses really well and actually presses, interestingly, not always super progressively, not always in the advanced areas is what I'm trying to say, but sometimes in the middle third, right? Where they press you in the middle third. That's a really interesting

Elliot Smith19:23Thing that we struggled with. I thought this was just a really high-level game. Brighton were very good. And I agree that we started the game trying to almost be overcommitted to playing out from the back. And we played a lot of really I think sort of silly passes in our own box and by our corner flag and playing in all the wrong areas. But I think if anyone is willing to watch it again the players did start to solve problems and we just didn't execute very well. Ultimately, whether you agree with anything we're saying that the game wasn't as bad as you think, or you think the game was worse, my conclusion is watching it again made me more convinced than anything that actually we're really very good and score lines like that will be vanishingly or air as they have been. In your video, Lewis, you talk about the last time we lost by three clear goals or even two clear goals. It it doesn't happen much. And I'd be stunned if it happens again. And as I've said, I think we're gonna wind up with the fewest goals conceded in the Premier League this season. So for me it is still more about the execution and transition and an attack than anything that happened in terms of conceding in that game.

Lewis Ambrose20:33Yeah, I d I agree on the transitions that there was there were issues there or they weren't well executed. But yeah, it is before Saturday, Arsenal hadn't trailed not lost, hadn't trailed in any moment of any Premier League game for the last seventy two Premier League games. And I put more s before Saturday

Elliot Smith20:51Wait what? We hadn't trailed at all?

Lewis Ambrose20:55Arsenal had had trailed, but not by two goals. Yeah.

Elliot Smith20:57But two goal had not trailed by two goals.

Lewis Ambrose20:59Arsenal had not been behind by two goals for a single second of a Premier League game for seventy two games before Saturday. I it's crazy, right?

Elliot Smith21:06That's an astonishing number. I wonder what the second longest amount of time is for

Lewis Ambrose21:12I don't know. I looked up Manchester City last season as a reference point. Across that wasn't in the league. It's across all competitions, but across all competitions, City trailed by two goals in five different games last season. Arsenal went nearly two Premier League seasons without it happening once. I think that's I think it is an incredible stat and to your point that you know you're you're still confident, I would put a lot more stock in what happened in seventy two games than what happened in the last one. And the last one's the most recent one and it does worry me. The the performance for chunks of that game concern me. You know, Clive talks about the washing machine and I think after that third goal went in there was a big case of everybody being in the maybe in the tumble dryer, I don't know. We'd we'd already been rinsed. But I

Elliot Smith22:02Yeah. I don't do laundry. I don't I don't I don't know what you're talking about, but I'll take your word for it. I do the dishes.

Lewis Ambrose22:11But we I th I think we were yeah, like I say, n not good for big chunks of that game, but we were pretty good for other chunks of that game against the team that was playing really, really well, and this was a ha famous last words before we returned from the international break and play leads. R right now, in this moment, this was an enormous outlier and anomaly in terms of an arsenal performance and result.

Elliot Smith22:41Good news is over this three weeks the players can rest, they can recover, they can train a bit, none of them will be flying off to the furthest corners of the world playing competitive fixtures on bad pitches against teams that go in two footed. None of them will be overplayed when it's unnecessary. None of them will play four nineties despite not being needed at all and being overplayed and they will all come back rested and ready and the international break is just a time for renewal in general and not a time when anything bad happens. So w

Lewis Ambrose23:07Rice Declan Rice is almost certainly using his time out of the England squad to do an Iron Man or something.

Elliot Smith23:14Exactly. He's currently doing the one mile swim right now. Okay, look, we're gonna draw a line under that game and it's Leeds at home after the international break. I think Leeds are a pretty good team, but I think we should be much better than them at and certainly at home. I do think going to Ellen Road can be a tough one, but home to Leeds is a good chance for us to get back to winning ways and some of the bigger fixtures are coming up after this international break and some tests against more stern opposition that will challenge us in the way that Brighton did. So we'll see if a lot of our conclusions from this game are valid or if this was a bright red, warning light blinking. There'll be time to see that. I do think since the title of the episode is grading the start to the season, we should grade the start to the season. So with the Brighton game behind us and having repeatedly said that it's one of our best performances in years, obviously we know where the grades are going to go. How about this? We'll do American style letter grades. You can use pluses and minuses if you want as well. We won't grade on a curve, though. We're gonna we're gonna give accurate grades here. For the start to the season overall, before we get into players, manager, all that sort of stuff, what is your overall letter grade for the start to the season from the community shield to the Brighton game?

Lewis Ambrose24:29A minus. Including the community shield as well, right? Yeah. A then A minus. I think points on the board. We played we had a hard start to the season. Brighton away, Sunderland away, Villa away. All three finish in the top half last season. And they're all away games. Like that's three of the harder away games you'll play without playing a Liverpool or a Man City away from home. There are three of the harder away games you can play in the league. We met Villa at a good time, we met Brighton at a bad time. I think with those three games plus Chelsea at home at the start of the season, if you'd have told me that we would draw two of them, I'd have thought that'd be like obviously I don't want to draw any games, but I'd have thought that would have been o they would have been pretty good results. Like say a draw at Brighton and a draw at either Sunderland or Villa. Games that we didn't win last season. I'd have probably said the two point five points from those three games would do us pretty well. And we beat Chelsea at home on top of that and we took six points from those three games. So I'm you know, if A plus would have been full marks, points for everything, if

Lewis Ambrose25:45An A would have been a draw in one of those games, then to me, a defeat in one of those games takes us down to an A minus.

Elliot Smith25:52Yeah, I think an A minus is right, and the only thing keeping it from being an A is not just really the defeat but the manner of the defeat that leaves us with a little bit of a sour taste in our mouth and it and it is quite a heavy defeat. I think, defensively, we have been excellent. In the league before the Brighton game, we'd conceded one goal in four games. None to Coventry, none to Villa, none to Sunderland, one to Chelsea, and then the three to Brighton, although we conceded about a third of the XG against Brighton in that three nil that City did against who was it that they just played in that crazy game sunderland. Yeah. So defensively I think not much to worry about. You know, we also conceded nothing to Napoli in the Champions League. We conceded nothing to Manchester City in the community shield. The attack, I mean the numbers aren't abysmal in terms of the goals that we've scored, but I do think the attack has been a bit hit and miss. Interestingly, we're creating open play chances. We're not creating any set piece chances, which is, I guess, what everybody wanted to stop being good at set pieces. Well, you got your wish. We're not good at set pieces anymore. We're conceding from them and we're not scoring from them. You got exactly what you wanted. You're welcome. So, you know, I think the attack has been okay, not great. But, you know.

Elliot Smith27:10There have been things that that are encouraging. Players we didn't have last season coming back and largely looking very good. The other thing I would say is that our record without William Saliba over the past few seasons has been dire, desperately poor. And while Ezri Konsa is by no means William Saliba, that edition has allowed us to start the season conceding, you know, before Brighton, one league goal, one goal in four games. He hasn't been perfect, but to be four wins, one loss without Saliba is a big improvement. It's a 91-point pace. It's a very big improvement of what you expect when you don't have Saliba. And by the way, when you don't have Timber either, I realize he played the Brighton game, but I do think we believe that a fit Urian timber is one of the best defenders in the world. So to be starting with no timber and no saliba and still look pretty good defensively is a testament to our structure, but also the quality of the squad that we have. I do think I get it. It's not really a competitive fixture, but I think increasingly the community shield has become a thing that people want to win. And to beat City 3-0 was really fun. A really fun statement way to kick off the season. Lewis, coming out of preseason, I felt we would start in stuttering fashion. Players just coming back, late back from the World Cup, new signings getting in late, not really getting in the signings we necessarily wanted. There were a lot of reasons to believe, especially based on how we played in the preseason, that it would be a stuttering start. And to get that three nil to City, and boom, we're off and running.

Elliot Smith28:37And then obviously Clobber, Coventry, beat Villa away, get a win over Chelsea. Beating Chelsea's always fun. So there's that, especially coming down, coming back from being down a goal. I think it's a lot of fun there. Going to Napoli and really dominating them. This has been a good start to the season. A minus for me because of the Brighton game. But considering who's not available and considering the way we looked in the summer and what I thought would be our build up to this season, I don't know that there's much more you can ask for, you know.

Lewis Ambrose29:05Yeah, yeah, I think so too. I completely agree. I think the defensively we've looked good. Like you say, there's been a n maybe not looked as good going forward, but we've got the goals that we've needed to get. And I think we've seen moments where you can see there are more goals in the team and in certain players than we're actually getting at the moment. We're through in the League Cup and importantly managed to rotate basically the entire team to go through in the League Cup. I think that adds value to that victory. Yeah. It a good start, a dominant start, even though it was only a one goal win in the Champions League. So all in all we should be pretty happy. I think if imagine the Brighton game was the first day of the season and then everything else had followed after that. Yeah, the order of things obviously changes how you feel about it all, but the mood would probably over the last couple of days have been really different.

Elliot Smith29:56Yeah, I think the general vibe right now is gonna be impacted by the last thing you saw. But when you start saying like an away win in Europe, a three-no win over City and the Community Shield, a win over Chelsea, wins away in hard places we didn't get them last season, Sunderland and Villa, I've had a lot of fun the start of this season. It just so happens that we have three weeks to ruminate on the least fun moment of the season, to your point. Give me your grade for Mikel Arteta to start this season. It seems like the players have a little more freedom of movement where they want to go. He's had new parts he's had to integrate. He hasn't necessarily, you know, known exactly what he wants to pick because Bruno was injured to start the season, and he had to bring Myles back in, which he did instead of defaulting to Zubimendi. He's had to make some big calls as a versus Tzolis, like, I think it was the Chelsea game, right? Where Soli said only played a half at Sunderland and then came back in for Chelsea. Had some big calls to make there.

Elliot Smith30:57What do you make of his start to the season? Any tactical tweaks and use of the squad and how he's doing as our manager, which he will be for a while to come, by the way, because it looks like he has signed or is about to sign a new deal, which is not really a surprise.

Lewis Ambrose31:13Yeah, I think that's an interesting question. I would maybe go like B plus for Mikel Arteta. I wouldn't underestimate the difficulty of being impressive without William Saliba and being solid and still looking good without William Saliba. I think he should have done some things differently against Brighton the other day. I thought it was very strange not to make any changes at half time with the team two nil down. But generally I think he's used his squad pretty well. We knock on wood, haven't had any injuries yet, other than the existing ones that we came into the season with. I think that will be a big question as the season goes on. We've got this depth now. Will he use it to make sure that we don't get injuries? To make sure that players don't suffer from fatigue. I think we saw the other day Declan Rice looked tired and that needs to be avoided as the season goes on. But early on, we started the season with Mosquera playing well. Konsa came in, has played for the most part really well. Ben White, same thing. I'm pretty happy. I don't think he's done anything spectacular. I do think there's a bit more freedom for the players. But yeah, I'm I'm pretty happy with the season, from Mikel Arteta's perspective. Without without us playing any of the games yet where I would say, yeah, he's won us that game or needs to win us that game.

Elliot Smith32:39Yeah, I don't know what I would be asking him to do much differently. I mean, he didn't have much options at right back. I think he got his rotation spot on for the League Cup tie. You know, he didn't go with a strong team. I mean, anything any team we put out with Arsenal right now is a strong team 'cause we got two strong elevens, but you know, he got players out of the squad that needed time. He's navigated the injuries the only way he can. I mean you could you could ask about Eze versus Tzolis and the usage there, but I think he was vindicated in his decision to start Tzolis against Chelsea, despite getting him off at halftime at Sunderland. And by the way, that's a move I praise. That Sunderland win, I think Mikel Arteta gets a big slice of credit for that. He managed that game really impressively in my mind. And if you remember, Tzolis got the yellow in the first half. He wasn't playing Villa. I'm so sorry. Yeah, I don't know why I sorry,

Lewis Ambrose33:28Villa. That that was Villa. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No good.

Elliot Smith33:32Sorry, the Villa game. Yep. He got that yellow in the first half. And I think there are scenarios where Michael Arteta might have tried to get him to sixty minutes or seventy minutes. He didn't. He made that change. And the one thing you can't do in that situation is go down to ten men and give a villa team that weren't really in the game a chance to get into it. Th I think the change was the right one. I th I thought he made some really good, useful changes in that game that worked, obviously. When he bought brought Bruno in, that was the Sunderland game. He scores the goal that wins it. So that's what you want to see from a manager. I McEl Artet is firing on all cylinders and I do just want to say, Lewis, the fact that it looks like he is gonna sign and he is gonna stay, I think it's more important than any business we could do in the market right now because I don't want to be disrespectful to Arsenal. I think Arsenal's a wonderful club that's reasonably well run, but I don't think Arsenal are Brighton or Brentford. I don't think Arsenal have the kind of infrastructure where you can just swap out the manager and the machine runs efficiently.

Elliot Smith34:37I think Mikel is the machine a bit. I think players wanna play for him. They want to sign to stay with him. I think he knows how to get the highest competitive level out of his players. Whatever nits you want to pick with certain bits of his style, there's been a lot of change behind the scenes at the executive level, right? I mean, we've seen this the director of football change, right? We've seen Edu come in and go and Andre Berta come in and we've seen changes at the CEO level. We've seen changes with some of the people that are on the board and make key decisions behind the scenes. And I think we've maybe overstated a little bit the extent to which KSE on a day-to-day basis are weighing in on things. So I do think that Mikel Arteta is the glue. I you know, I'm not gonna sit here and be like, he's perfect. That's not my point. My point is I don't think there are a lot of managers running elite organizations that have this much. Influence, control, and responsibility over every aspect of success. And that's a lot to wear. And I think he wears it very well.

Lewis Ambrose35:44Yeah, and it's it's responsibility that he's earned as well, right? He didn't he didn't have that when he arrived. He's accumulated it over time because he's earned it with the work that he's done. So yeah, I d I think completely. I think it's really great news that he'll be staying. Arsenal were mired in sort of mediocrity when he arrived. And now we are the team that everybody's chasing at the top of the Premier League and Champions League semifinals, final. In the last two years, I think there's every reason to be incredibly optimistic as long as Mikel Arteta's the manager. And I think if you look at the teams that have you know, for all the complaints and I've had some myself, you know, about the style of football and the ways of getting over the line, but if you look at the teams that have won the Champions League, competed for the Champions League, won the Premier League over the past, I don't know, ten years, I think you see world class attacking talent. In every single one of those teams except as. You if you look at the fact that we're starting in the season and it's like or should we have Jollis or Eze playing on the left? W nobody else who competes for these things has a question like that hanging over them. Liverpool have spent how much money on Isaac and Ekatike and Florian Vietz? Manchester City you don't even need to get started on who

Lewis Ambrose37:09Plays in that front three or four for Manchester City, PSG. Right, yeah, yeah, of course, yeah. Geez.

Elliot Smith37:12You somehow forgot Barcola for Liverpool too, by the way. Yeah.

Lewis Ambrose37:17Bark and you know you could throw in like a gap po but I'm talking players like they've they've backed the club, have backed the team, the manager, supported it with enormous amounts of money on individual players to raise the level. I mean if it had worked properly, to raise the level of that team as high as possible. And Mikel Artia hasn't had that support and has still turned Arsenal. At least not financially, had quite that level of support. And you can that's a whole other discussion. Like, has he had that financial support but he used it to focus on the midfield and the defence instead? Maybe. Maybe that's that's on him then, right?

Elliot Smith37:55Lean more that way, although I think this summer, this summer I think was the first time I feel like there was another move out there to make and we didn't get it done. In the past, I do feel like we spent sufficiently in the way the manager wants us to spend. I would say this is the first summer I didn't feel.

Lewis Ambrose38:10Yeah, no, that's th I think that's fair. I think you can argue that for sure. But at the end of the day, I think the point still stands that every single team that we're competing with or that we would have competed with in the last ten years for the trophies we're competing for, have more talent in the final third than Arsenal, and he is the reason that that gap is closed.

Elliot Smith38:32Yeah. Yeah. I look, I agree. And fundamentally and it's tough, right? 'Cause when you say, Brighton or a machine that just keeps running no matter who the manager is, or Brentford is, I do think it is easier to get structures in place to use your resources to stay somewhere between tenth and fifth than it is to stay second or first, right? Like

Lewis Ambrose38:54And when you are when you are bright on how many players out there in the world can be better than what you have or can replace what you sell? Whereas when you're Arsenal the pool of players is just smaller, right? The the can come in and raise Arsenal's level immediately.

Elliot Smith39:11Yeah, it's it's just that like when you have consistent effective structures behind the manager supporting the manager, obviously the manager looks better. When you don't, the manager looks worse. And you know, you can look at Manchester United who churned through managers who were thought to be talented guys who wound up not being able to succeed. There, Chelsea are a great example. I don't know how talented some of those managers were, but I think Shabby Alonso's pretty good manager and he's struggling to get his hands around it right now at Chelsea, I think, because they're a weird organization. Liverpool were a good organization, good steady hand on the wheel. Klopp was there. He's one of the best managers of all time, in my view, but they built him an excellent squad. And Slot came in, steady hand on the wheel, good organization, great talent, won a title, started to lose some of that great talent. The organization faltered and he got sacked the next season. It was pretty remarkable. The biggest test of this is going to be City because look, it's it's unpleasant to say that City are well run. I think two things can be true. I think City allegedly have committed a lot of breaches of financial regulations to get where they are and continue to do so, allegedly. I also think they have some very smart, highly paid executives who are some of the best in all of football. I mean, it may sound obvious, but one of the things Citi do is just pay a lot for elite executive talent, pay a lot for the behind the scenes people that come in and really know how to run a high performance organization. And so City are a weird one because they've had arguably the best manager in the last

Elliot Smith40:39Generation in football. But I think they also have a really good effective structure and the financial might to go and do what they need to do to get their squad in the place it needs to be. We just aren't talking enough about doing Elliot Anderson, Enzo, and Buati in one window. It's it's an absurd amount of money to throw at a problem in one window. We lost Rodri. We lost Bernardo Silva. Let's just buy three of the most sought-after elite available midfield talents in world football in one window to augment a squad that was already the highest paid by wages in the world, that already has the best striker in the world. You know, after getting Antoine Semeno in January. So organizationally, I think they are well prepared to support a manager as long as that manager is competent. I think Enzo Moresca, it's funny everyone talks about, Arsenal are favorites. If Enzo Moresca doesn't win the title, he's failed. He has the highest paid squad. He has the most back manager financially and he should win the title and he should win the Champions League. And if he doesn't, he's a failure. You know, I don't think you can say the same about Mikel Arteta just looking at the wage bill, looking at where we are in the hierarchy, but what he's built has set him up for success. That's enough on Mikel. I think what we should do is pivot to players. And the way we'll do this is we'll do a quick attack, midfield, defense. You know, and we'll grade that.

Elliot Smith43:29Okay. Look, Lewis, let's start with the defense. We'll work our way forward. Actually, goalkeeper. A minus? A where you at with Raya? The goalkeeping group, yeah.

Lewis Ambrose43:43I love David Raya. The goalkeeper yeah, Kepa. Kepper at Ipswich. Wow. Ilan Melier, big impact. But yeah, David Raya, I was about to give him a score out of ten. That's not what we're doing. Yeah, but A minus. I don't I don't think he was at fault for any of that goals that we've conceded. I like

Elliot Smith44:07Don't I don't love that we he that Brighton scored two goals outs from outside the box.

Lewis Ambrose44:11Love that they do. I don't love that when Arsenal concede any goals. I there was this start.

Elliot Smith44:16Should he g should he get to the one at the near post?

Lewis Ambrose44:18The first one, he gets if you slow it down, he actually gets a finger to it and the power beats him. I can I c you can only see it on there's an angle, see like I told you, the rewatching games and you speed things up and slow things down. I was curious about this. You can if you slow it down to like point five speed on the angle there's like a camera at ground level inside the goal or just behind the goal. And his fingers move. His fingers move as the ball goes past him. I think he just gets a little touch on it and it's not quite enough. I think a shot that is we have a bias for near post shots that we say, he should have saved that. Like for some reason we say at the near post you shouldn't let a goal in. But your far post is fine. And I don't really understand why that is. And I think a shot that cracks in off the post that the keeper trust me, look at what's your back at like slowed down. The keeper gets a slight touch on it. If that ball is an inch more inside the post, then he tips around the post or onto the post. It's out for a corner, whatever. Like that's the gap. That's the difference between a save and not making a save. I think

Lewis Ambrose45:34I w I don't know, yeah, there's no good angle of if Calafiori and Gabriel are obstructing his view as well. And I wanted to mention as well, there's this stat that that got a lot of attention at the weekend. He's got the for Premier League goalkeepers with more than with at least a hundred goals conceded, David Rye has the second highest proportion of all time for goals conceded from outside the box. And I would contest like and then it like, is this a weakness? Like firstly, yeah, maybe 'cause nobody's perfect. But secondly, I would contest that Arsenal and Brentford defend the penalty area better than over the last ten years or five years when David Ray has been playing in the Premier League, better than basically any other teams in Premier League history. So of course he's not gonna let in goals from inside the box, because Gabriel throws his head in the way of everything that gets shot at from inside the box, and Arsenal win everything in the air, and there are bodies in the way and everybody's back behind the ball.

Lewis Ambrose46:34And we've also seen him save plenty of shots taken from outside the box too. A few weeks ago with Esther Val. He's I would say it's Sunderland. So

Elliot Smith46:42That saves sensational.

Lewis Ambrose46:44The Chelsea game late on he holds on to the three points for us. And at Sunderland, he wins us the three points, as far as I'm concerned. So he saved a penalty and

Elliot Smith46:51Saved a penalty. You you save a penalty. I mean A plus.

Lewis Ambrose46:55Then throughout that game, there's a bit of it in the Chelsea game too. His ability to come and stop problems at the before they arise, just come and claim and crosses. There would they used to be like, I think they some of the save stats reduce goalkeepers way, way too much to some to one part of their job. I would much rather have a goalkeeper who doesn't have to save a ball because he comes and stops a shot from happening than a goalkeeper stuck on his line who then maybe makes a few more saves a season. And but also lets a few more goals in because he's there waiting for a shot to happen. David Raya stops us from having to concede shots. And I thought he was I thought with his feet he was poor at Brighton on Saturday. But I also think that's not usually an issue for him. So yeah, I think the Brighton game was an off day for everybody. I say, for periods of that game at least. But I think he won us points against Sunderland and he won us points against Chelsea.

Elliot Smith47:55Small solace too, but he saves that game from being 4-0 because he makes a really good save in the 90th minute when it just could have been an even uglier scoreline. So yeah, I changed my mind. He's an A plus. I don't know what more you can ask for a goalkeeper. Saved a penalty to keep us, you know, get us to win at Sunderland. He he saved an undeserved equalizer from Esteval against Chelsea to get us an important win there. Yeah, I'm I'm all aboard the Riot train. Okay. The defense. I'll go first here. I am going to give our defense an A plus. Because in Timber and Saliba, you have a case for the best right back in the world, and the only player I think who can compete with him is Akimi. And in Saliba, I think you have the best right sided center back in the world. And I'm not sure anybody can compete with him. And both of them have missed almost the entire start to this season. And before Brentford, we'd conceded one goal to Chelsea. Concept come came in and essentially did everything you could ask a new player to do from the start. Ben White, who I didn't think had much left, did about as well as you can ask anyone to do under the circumstances. And Mosquera did well in the limited time he had before he got injured. I think given the group that's available, I Calafiori, apart from being a little bit, I don't know, maybe inebriated against Brighton, has been an important part of the attack looking a little bit

Elliot Smith49:18More difficult to stop and more dynamic. I think he's he's been excellent. And Gabby is the glue that holds everything together. I think given what's available, a A plus, you know, still the best defense in the league in my mind, and that's without two of the best defensive players for most of the season so far.

Lewis Ambrose49:35Yeah, I f I find it hard to disagree, to be honest. I think maybe A, but I'm I don't know where to where I'm knocking marks off for is the thing.

Elliot Smith49:46Three goals in a Premier League game. If you wanna give us markdowns for that, y you can,

Lewis Ambrose49:52It has I guess A plus I'm like that is perf that's perfection and more or less. And it hasn't been absolutely perfect. I think Gabri I don't think Gabriel's been at his best, but I think Gabriel's been good and Gabriel's good is on par with the best of any other centre back in the league anyway. I think Calafiori and White have been really important in attack in particular. I thought Mosquera was really good before he went down with his injury against Villa and I think Konsa's come in and look like he's played at Arsenal for two or three years already, throughout his games. So yeah, Marley Salmon too. If you wanna throw Marley Salmon in there, I think that's a nice little positive from the Ipswich game that Marley Salmon came in and played really well and looked at home. So yeah, I d I think I'd I'll go with an A. But I you know, nothing really to complain about.

Elliot Smith50:45Yeah. And if you want to use the opta data on expected goals allowed, Arsenal are first with four. Forrester next with four point eight. Liverpool are next with six point one. So we're two I mean, I don't know why you'd throw Forest out, but let's throw Forest out just for a second. We we are two point one expected goals clear of Liverpool and almost a full goal clear of Forest in second. I mean, Manchester City are, you know distantly mid table, by the way. Three point three expected goals allowed more than us. So seven point three to four point Like the defense is mostly responsible for expected goals, I think, be allowed because that's not about how many goals you can see. It's about the quality of the chances you give up. And we are giving up the fewest good quality chances. So I you know

Lewis Ambrose51:35Yeah, that we've got the lowest X G per shot in the league is against us. The the lowest percentage of shots taken inside the box in the league is against us. I think the lowest shots on target as well, conceded is us. It's yeah, we don't give much up at all.

Elliot Smith51:55Okay, so and by the way, we're underperforming our expected goals this season, which may not sound surprising people to go, that's because we don't have talent in attack. I think it's worth noting, and when Giant Gunner does his pod during this international break, we have historically not just overperformed XG, but massively overperformed XG during this Arteta run. It has been a consistent, reliable truth about Arsenal. If we just return to our sort of usual overperformance level. The attack is going to have a couple of breakout games coming. We just haven't been finishing chances at the level that we and you might say, well that's talent. But again, I'm telling you, traditionally we overperform XG a lot. Okay, let's go to the midfield. What do you have for our midfield group as they're grade so far?

Lewis Ambrose52:37What's the is Erdogard part of the midfield? We're so we're talking midfield three, right?

Elliot Smith52:40Yes, yeah, I think it's a midfield three. We're talking Rice, Zubi, Myles, Bruno, Odegaard. I don't know if Eze even is in that group anymore. Mikel Merino, yeah.

Lewis Ambrose52:56Mm B plus. I think Declan Rice has looked good and then sometimes a little leggy. I think Bruno Guimarães's looked great and then really, really bad. I think Myles has looked pretty good without kind of looking spectacular. I think he's been good. And Martin Odegaard's been great. He probably takes us all up from a B to a B plus single handedly in that midfield for me. And then Merino and Zubimendi have kind of been tidy in the roles they've played but haven't really had much of a say this season. Right, yeah, by now.

Elliot Smith53:30Zubies had more right back minutes than midfielder minutes, yeah.

Lewis Ambrose53:33Yeah. I d I thought they were both really, really important at Villa Park in particular when they came on and we controlled that and saw the game over the line. But they nothing that that changed the course of the season. Odegaard's had a few moments like that already. He's just been really, really excellent. I think of I think there have been a couple of games. Brighton was one and Villa was another one where Odegaard didn't look great. But when he's looked good, he has looked head and shoulders above any other player on the pitch. He hasn't just been good, he's been exceptional when he's been on it. You know, the Man City game, Coventry, Chelsea, Napoli. He was by miles the best player on the pitch and the most effective player and the most decisive player on the pitch. You know, it's a really, really promising start to the season. Yeah, so so Odegaard alone takes everybody up a bit. I think everybody else has kind of been overall in the case of Bruno a little bit up and down and then like Rice, Lewis-Skelly, kind of par for the course so far this season. So i aga again, not much I mean we've w we've won seven out of eight games. There's not gonna be loads to critique or complain about, but I think there's sort of

Lewis Ambrose54:49Decent, but there's I hope for more to come and I expect more to come more to come from some of these players.

Elliot Smith54:55Yeah. I'll say B because I have very high expectations for this being the best midfield in the league. And I think it has had moments where it's sort of sparkled and popped and fizzed with that kind of quality and moments like Brighton where it was simply below the level. To your point, Bruno I think went wandering a bit, didn't get back in his hole in time. He he's figuring out his role in this three. I think the dynamic of him and Odegaard is one that's one to keep an eye out for. Does it make sense in tough combative away fixers to have both Odegaard and Bruno with Rice, or does your rest defense get unsettled if you're doing that? I that's an interesting one. I think Rice, to your point, has been a seven and a half out of ten, but Rice is someone I expect to be a ten out of ten. And that's not surprising, by the way, given his exertions in the summer and the speed with which he came back from that. It sounded like you're something you wanted to say on that front.

Lewis Ambrose55:49No, I guess I would I just gonna say, like, I would compare that to kind of the Gabriel in defence, right? Where like I said about Gabriel, Rice's seven and a half out of ten still has him as one of the best midfielders in the league on these performances, but you expect him to on his own be streets ahead of everybody else and be the standout player on the pitch, going both ways all game long. And I d I don't think I don't like it's the same with like I say, it's the same with Gabriel. I don't think he's done anything wrong with but we know there are higher heights there that he could hit.

Elliot Smith56:21Yeah, I think the interesting thing with Rice actually is he's we've adjusted where he's playing a little more to the right, maybe a little deeper behind Odegaard. And I think that has been why we've seen some improved Odegaard performances when he can w take up higher positions on the pitch. But I think the best Rice is a left half space player, right? He's a left-sided player. I think I think I think he's best

Lewis Ambrose56:41I dunno. I dunno.

Elliot Smith56:44Charging up and down, you know, on the piston, as Clive might say, in that left half space, dominating the left. Side of the field in both halves. I think it's where he's most comfortable. And I could be wrong. So I

Lewis Ambrose56:56I guess what I'd put forward as a not as a disagreement, but as a kind of a thought on why this might be happening is does Declan Rice have the capacity to charge up and down for n the next nine months or Arsenal trying to like limit

Elliot Smith57:12That's a great point. Yeah.

Lewis Ambrose57:14Maybe s the areas of the pitch that he's asked to have a massive influence over because the last couple of years have been so taxing on his body.

Elliot Smith57:24But if you're then gonna have Calafiori and Bruno on that other side, he's gonna have to come all the way over. Yeah.

Lewis Ambrose57:30He's gonna have work to do.

Elliot Smith57:32We'll see. But look, I mean, fundamentally, you know, Bruno won us a game already. So he gets points for that. He's been injured, hasn't fully integrated. Myles stepped in, did well. Rice has been fine. Odegaard has had ten out of ten performances, but maybe some six out of tens in there. I think it's still congealing. The the overall talent of the group is phenomenal. Have we gotten that one Imperious dominant elite performance in the league out of them yet? I mean, I think they were really good as a group against Chelsea, where I thought we dominated the middle of the park, but they had a weird midfield out there for that game. So I don't know. I think I'd say it's a solid B. I think it's a it's a group where the ceiling is higher than what we've seen so far. And as these players get further integrated and fit, it's only going to go up from there. All right. Now the blockbuster part of this, the attack. I'm really curious to see what you have to say about the attack.

Lewis Ambrose58:23Sell, sell, sell, sell.

Elliot Smith58:24No, it's not by sell. It's it's grades. You gotta give it a grades.

Lewis Ambrose58:27No, I don't care. I've I've changed the format. That's how angry I am. See, you said earlier we're not grading on a curve, but then I feel like with Gabriel and Rice, I kind of have graded on a curve a little bit. So I think I don't necessarily expect more from this attack, but if I'm grading them against the best attacks around, like a C<unk>. A b a B a B minus, a

Elliot Smith58:57Mm. Yeah. What g give me give me a little rationale here.

Lewis Ambrose59:01C plus. Arsenal don't create enough chances. I don't have a problem with not converting chances. I'm more worried when you don't create them. And that's why I think, similarly to you, I'm not really concerned right now about Bukayo Saka. I think he'll be fine and I think actually if anything I'm a encouraged by the fact that he's getting into scoring positions which wasn't happening so often the last couple of seasons. He's not finishing them but I think if he gets in there enough he will finish them. I like the kind of poachers goals that he's scored. I think the attack has relied in the first couple of games of the season on Ricardo Calafiori joining it and creating things. It relied on Bruno Guimarães unlocking the door at Sunderland. That we've not played many games yet where the attack is then asking the midfield or a defender to win them the game. 'cause our attack isn't winning us games. And and I think that's naturally I think that's a problem. Yeah, Villa was one that the attack won for us. Chelsea, I thought the attack was really good that day and really dangerous. Other than that, it's been a mixed bag. I think Kai Havertz it's kinda like Odegaard has

Lewis Ambrose1:00:18Had a couple of six out of tens, one or two games maybe even worse than that. And then one or two really good games. Coventry and Chelsea at home stick out to me as the really good ones, Villa and Brighton, kinda horrible ones. Saka I love Bukayo Saka and I think if Bukayo Saka I'm really encouraged by these positions that he's getting into. He's playing on the shoulder, he is scoring a couple of poachers goals, he's getting himself in the box. He is too good to miss too many chances. And players getting chances is my worry for Arsenal, not players finishing them. To your XG point earlier, you know, something I mentioned again in the in the Arsenal YouTube video. Because finishing comes up as a stick to beat this Arsenal team with, you know, we're not good enough, we don't finish our chances. We fixate on the one chance we had because we don't create enough chances, is my thing. In twenty two twenty three and twenty-three-twenty-four. City missed more big chances than we did, and they won the league in both seasons. And in 24-25 and 25-26, we missed more big chances than Manchester City and we finished above them in both seasons. The team that creates the most chances will miss the most chances and score the most chances. Create more

Elliot Smith1:01:35Yes. Yes. Yes. That is

Lewis Ambrose1:01:39The answer is always to create more chances, not to be more clinical. Yeah, teams can finish. Sometimes and players can finish sometimes and that is true for basically every player around. Erling Haaland misses the most big chances in the Premier League every single season. Because

Elliot Smith1:01:59It used to be Salah.

Lewis Ambrose1:02:01Yeah. Because the hardest thing is not putting it in the net. The hardest thing is being there in the first place, getting on the end of it, battling with the defenders, getting your shots away, all of that stuff. That that's harder than the final finish, which if we're honest, involves a bit of luck. A bad goalkeeper, a bobbling shot, like Martin Odegaard, hilarious, right? After after one game this season, Martin Odegaard had as many goals in the Premier League or more than he had last season. Aga with that one against Coventry. It was the worst he will hit a shot all season. Finishing is not the answer. You can finish badly and still score. You need to create. And yeah, I think the onus is on our attack. To create more chances and they don't do enough of it. They haven't done enough of it. So yeah, I think there's been, I say, a couple of good games from Havertz, some glaring misses from Saka in some otherwise pretty good performances and encouraging sort of green shoots. Zollis has looked welcomingly at home in a couple of games and then worryingly out of depth in a couple of others.

Lewis Ambrose1:03:11And I think that's normal, bedding in and a new league and a new team, new expectations. And I mean they're they're the three that we're grading really, 'cause Mikel Arteta hasn't trusted anyone else, Eberitchiez Noni Madweke, Viktor Gyokeres enough to play any sort of significant minutes.

Elliot Smith1:03:30I'd say this, right? What you don't want, you don't want missed chances to cost you a game, right? You don't want a game that you should have won 1-0 to wind up nil-nil, or you should have won 2-0 to wind up 1-1 because you missed chances. What was the game where Martinelli missed the back post? Was it Forest away? Yeah. And like Mikel

Lewis Ambrose1:03:48F forest away last season, yeah.

Elliot Smith1:03:50Was really hung up on that. Like, look, you don't want missed chances to cost you games. But as we've discussed on this podcast, a if you get two chances in a game and don't convert them, you shouldn't be like, we didn't take our chances. You should be saying we didn't create enough. Right. The interesting thing this season, though, is we're underperforming XG, and yet none of our misses have cost us anything. Because we won every game except Brighton. And the problem in Brighton wasn't like, we were one converted chance away from winning that game. So it we haven't paid a price for it yet. We are currently sixth in the XG table according to Opta data. Brighton is number one, by the way. City number two. We are two expected goals behind them. Brentford next. United next. What I'll say about United, though, they're about 1.4 expected goals ahead of us. They had 4.7 expected goals against Ipswich or something like that. If you Yeah. Yes. Yes.

Lewis Ambrose1:04:41And almost all in the second half against Ipswich as well, as the game opened up and yeah.

Elliot Smith1:04:46So, you know, if you just s normalize that to saying standard, they're they're they're below. But it's Brighton City, Brentford, United, Sunderland. Interestingly. Liverpool, who everyone goes, they knew how to strengthen an attack, they properly invested in attack, they have fewer expected goals than us. Marginally and fewer goals. Yeah. Yep. Yes. Chelsea,

Lewis Ambrose1:04:59And few and fewer goals. They have put the ball in the net less times than Arsenal have this season.

Elliot Smith1:05:05Legendary attack. Look at all the attacking talent. They're distantly behind us in expected goals. One, two, three, four, five, six places behind us. So, you know, whatever you think it is, however bad you think it is, it's probably not that bad. And we have no set piece goals and that I think that will standardize to some set piece goals. I don't think it'll be last season. So there's some of that too. My grade for the attack is a C plus. There are some things that I'm encouraged by. I think Kai Havertz has largely been very, very good and looked fit. He wasn't good against Brighton. But I do think we do this thing where we judge on whatever the last thing we saw is. I think he's been good. I think Christo Tzolis has been good. Not a superstar, just good. But he probably isn't going to be a superstar. He's probably just going to be good. And a lot of people would say, well, that's the problem. We don't have anyone who is going to be a superstar. Unfortunately, I don't think Ebracche Eze has been good. And I don't think Ebracha Eze's role in the team is clear right now. And I think when you have a player that can score a goal like he did against it was in the Champions League, wasn't it? Leverkusen.

Lewis Ambrose1:06:14Leverkusen last season.

Elliot Smith1:06:15Yeah. When you have a guy who can score a goal like that, when you have a guy who can score a hat trick in a game like he does against Spurs, you want to find a way to use a player of that talent, but that player has to be able to deliver consistently over ninety minutes, not just in moments. And so I think if he can come into the team more and really fight for a role, that can elevate our attack. For a team that needs more A, goals from nothing, and B chances. I think he has the ability to provide both of those things. But I Tzolis has been good. Viktor Gyokeres, we probably just won't get into it. His role has been extremely limited so far this season and I think that's probably going to continue for a while. The player worth focusing on is Pakayo Saka. Bukayo Saka is an interesting one because I think the analysis around him has been really poor, Lewis, in that there's a lot of this. He's not the same player he was talk. He lost the burst. He can't get by. The funny thing is, this is where data can be helpful. Bukayo Saka is getting into all the right places. He is doing all the stuff you want him to do, at least statistically. He has elite XG. I think he's in like the 92nd percentile for XG. He's around the 80th percentile for expected assists.

Elliot Smith1:07:25He's beating players off the dribble. He's getting into good positions. In the Brighton game, there was one moment where Raya just hopefully booted it up the pitch. He ran right by the fullback, held him off, got control of it, and created a really dangerous move. My issue with Bukayo Saka is execution, and that's the part I don't traditionally associate with being a problem for him. I don't know that his decision making has been elite, and I certainly don't think that his finishing has been elite. He's been shooting in the legs instead of giving the ball and not getting the last transition pass right. But I think Bukayo Saka is a player who will get that stuff right. If you want to make an argument, he's he's not the same player, he's lost something, then you'd have to argue it by saying he's not getting into the dangerous positions. He's not getting into the places to hurt teams. And I don't see that, and the data doesn't show that. So for me, Lewis, if there's a star in our attack, not including midfield attackers like an Odegaard, if there's a star in our front three, it's gotta be Bukayo Saka. And if you want some encouragement, I don't think it's that Saka has hit the level we want. But the encouragement for me is he's getting into the places and the positions and the situations we want to get him in. And I'm still willing to bet that that reap that that brings the results we want from him over time. That's where I'm at.

Lewis Ambrose1:08:39Yeah, I agree. I don't think Bokayo Saka will be thrilled with his start for the season. But he's already got three goals. He d he didn't score much in the last couple of seasons. You know, n certainly not as much as he was scoring before. He's already got three Premier League goals. I think last season was seven across the whole season. So, you know, it's it's a big improvement, it's a big jump. It he's getting like you say, he's getting on the end of things. I think he's getting inside the fullback more often, he's playing more centrally and if he keeps doing that, he will score more goals. He it's not just goals. He very nearly won a penalty at Aston Villa. He did win a penalty at Sunderland, which he converted from those runs inside the fullback. I the two open play goals that he scored so far this season, what I really, really like about those is those are the sort of bread and butter easy ones. If you make that run, if you Cheat inside your left back and react quicker to the left back when the ball's on the other side of the box, you will score five to ten easy goals every single season as a winger. Tap ins. Robert Perez used to do it all the time. So many of his goals would come from just arriving in the six yard box for a tap in at the back post. Saka, I don't think, has scored anywhere near enough those number of goals for Arsenal.

Lewis Ambrose1:10:06And he's got a couple of them already this season. So I think that's a really good sign. I wonder in the absence of a superstar attacker if his game is becoming more focused on scoring goals because Arsenal need players to step up and score more goals. I'm sure he'd have been disappointed with his output the last couple of years and maybe that's him, maybe d he's looking at that as a as a thing he needs to improve on. Look, good. If he's hungry for goals, he'll score more goals and th the sort of miss in Sundl at Sunderland where I think he's caught in two minds. Should he try to l knock it down, lay it off for Havertz or go on his own? It's a bad miss. There's a bad miss against Brighton the other day, although I think the ball's kinda behind him and I wondered at the time, I don't know, you can't tell from the angles, if Odegaard could have found a way to find the pass to him instead of Saka go for a rebound, which was behind him and bouncing and on his right foot. I don't think he hit it well, but I don't think it was an easy chance. There was the chances obviously, the couple of against Napoli that he'll be really disappointed with. But if you put him in that position again, I do not think he would miss. So yeah, if he keeps getting in the positions, we're looking for somebody to score twenty goals for Arsenal this season, and he is by far the standout candidate to do it. And what I've seen so far this season is

Lewis Ambrose1:11:31A guy who's missed a couple but has also scored a few. And I think I'm, pretty relatively confident like you, if he keeps getting in those positions and keeps getting those chances, he will score plenty of goals for us.

Elliot Smith1:11:44Yeah, I'm inclined to think that's right. And well let me let me just ask you this before I give a little more of my opinion here. D do you see a reduction in his burst or a reduction in any aspect of his physical capacity that is worrying you?

Lewis Ambrose1:12:06I don't see any I wonder what I see. Like I don't know. I think when he squares his fullback up one on one, there was a couple of moments against Brighton the other day. There was a moment that sticks out to me in the second half in Naples, I think he hit the side netting. When he squares his fullback up one on one and he kind of shuffles and then he goes, he still beats his fullback almost every time. I don't see him being slower over the first three or four yards. You mentioned that there was that long ball from Raya. And he is about like fifteen, sixteen, seventeen minutes into the game on Saturday. Raya plays that long ball forward and Saka uses his body and holds the defender off and drives us upfield. I maybe he's not the you know, he hasn't got Martinelli pace running in behind, but he's also never had Martinelli pace running in behind. I think he's quick without being rapid and I obviously with the injuries and especially the hamstring, I've wondered over the last year or two hamstring and Achilles, like if you're gonna talk about explosiveness, they're two awful injuries to have. I've wondered a lot over the last year or two if he's lost some of that. And I keep coming back to I think maybe he has, but I don't know that and

Lewis Ambrose1:13:33Is it just confirmation bias? And is he so markedly different that it's definitely true? No. So, I maybe he's lost five percent. Maybe he's lost a little bit. They are two really seriously in injuries for that kind of thing. But I also don't think we'd be talking about it if he'd have just converted one more of the chances that he's scored that that he's had so far this season. Three goals is nothing to be sniffed at after five games.

Elliot Smith1:13:59Yeah, the thing with Saka is I don't think he was ever from a sprinting standpoint blazing fast. I d I don't he's not Noni Madueke. He doesn't have that speed endurity speed endurance. He has the speed agility as Clive always talks about, or what I we'd call in American sports we talk about fast twitch muscles, right? He's got that shake and bake. He can power past him when he gets a leg around you and then bursts Beyond you and then holds you off with his strength. That's always been what he's done. And I don't see him not being able to do that. And maybe I'm just seeing what I want to see. But the idea that he used to just run away from people, sprinter style, like a Martinelli, I don't think we ever thought he was like Martinelli in his in his top speed. If we just look at data and you compare it to the 23, 24 season when he had 16 goals and nine assists, his expected goals per ninety that season were point four eight. This season, point six nine. Now look. It's very small sample size. He's had a couple tap-ins, so I get it. But if you look at shots and shots, I still think shots for a forward are a very sticky and reliable way to look at if you're getting where you need to be. And anyone over three shots per 90, I think, is in that sort of elite tier where you can be a big scorer and influence games. That 23-24 season, 3.31. This season, 3.23. Very, very similar. And by the way, getting more of those shots on target than he did in that season.

Elliot Smith1:15:23The expected assists are where the drop off has come. He was 0.34 that season, just 0.21 this season, and no assists yet. Chances created 2.79 that season, just 1.51 per 90 this season. Successful duels, by the way, he's winning. He's got 1.51 duels this season, winning 50%. Dribbles, sorry. 1.51 dribbles, 50% success. That season, 1.5 dribbles, 47.6%. All right, dual percentage, 49% that season, 58% this season. I, fouls what he's winning more fouls, 2.12 that season, 3.23 this season. So maybe that's part of it, teams are fouling him more. But interestingly, touches in the opposition box, 8.81 that season, 6.46 this season. So can we get him in the box more? When you look at all that data, the thing that jumps out to me, the dual wins look around the same, the shots look around the same, the dribbles look around the same, the expected goals actually look better. Better. The touches in the box aren't as good. But the thing that jumps out at me is the expected assists. And this is where I'm curious with Sack is just is he looking for his shot more when there's a teammate to play in? Is he not making the right decision in the high leverage moment? And again, this is small sample size data, but the data matches my eyes. He has no assists. He hasn't looked as I think as eager to

Elliot Smith1:16:49Find a teammate as he has been to find his own shot in some situations. Is that wrong?

Lewis Ambrose1:16:54I think there might be something to it, and I wonder if it's also instructed. We do not Arsenal do not have a player who will score 25 goals from this season if Bokari Saka doesn't do it. Mikel Arteta wanted a player who could carry Arsenal on their back and score 20 goals, 25 goals this season. We know that. We all know that. It was very obvious. He didn't get one. Is there an element of repurposing what you do have and asking somebody else to adapt their game, add something to their game? Maybe it means you lose something else from your game? I do feel, you know, we already touched on that, that Arsenal don't create enough chances. And but creating chances is is kind of a two-way street. Like, do Arsenal not create enough chances because they don't have enough players who can create a chance with the ball at their feet? Or do Arsenal not create enough chances because Arsenal don't have enough players who can get on the end of chances and make the right run and time the run right so that the pass becomes obvious. And if that's your answer to that question, then you don't need to coach Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz how to create a chance. You need to give them someone to create a chance for. And this is me playing devil's advocate and throwing a like a hypothetical out there, but if Arsenal need more goals

Lewis Ambrose1:18:21I wonder if mm Bakayasaka has been asked and told and maybe coached to be more focused on scoring more goals. And of course that means other parts of his game could drop away. But like where like you say, the where we're seeing him ha on the ball, where we're seeing him have chances, the movement we're seeing in the final third, I think this is we're seeing a Bukayo Saka more involved at the very end of things rather than sort of setting them up and I don't think that will cost Arsenal if that continues throughout the season.

Elliot Smith1:18:56Yeah. Yeah. I'm still buying Backayosaka stocks, based on the fact that I see him being involved in the like the Napoli game was frustrating. We didn't score as much as we should have, but Bukayo was everywhere, right? The Brighton game, you know, again, the most touches in the box, the most shots, the most chances created. Like he's doing all the stuff I want to see him do. So I'll I'll hold off on the he's physically washed talk. I just don't see where people see that. And there are keen video watchers who say, we see it here and here. I don't know. They show like eighteen-year-old Bukayo Saka playing left backs, bringing up the pitch and yes, he's added muscle, he's a little stockier, he looks a little different like men do versus boys, but I don't know that he was ever a sprinter. And I don't know that our success hinges on Bukayo Saka being a sprinter. I think it hinges on him being able to get past players, and as the data shows, and as my eyes tell me, he still gets around them when he needs to. Let's not pretend we haven't seen games too where surprisingly some fullback shuts him down when he was fit, when he was players don't always have their best game. But as I've said, if the underlying show that he's doing the things we want him to do, then I back him to get the actual results on the scoreboard. My final point here is I will simply say from the attacking standpoint, we feel one body light to me. One good, reliable player probably off the left.

Elliot Smith1:20:23But maybe it's, had it been Julian Alvarez, had it been Morgan Rogers. I lament the Morgan Rogers thing because I think the one thing you can probably do to Arsenal, if you press, if you get us into a game where we're playing the ball in our own half a lot, you're probably going to take your chances with us not being effective in transition. That's something about Arsenal, right? The best teams, I think, if you try to press them, if you try to come onto them, they're gonna absolutely kill you. They are just gonna kill you. And I think Morgan Rogers is one of those players in transition that you can get really burned really badly if you try to press and he can start running at you the other way. And I don't know that we have that player. And I think that would have been a really good fit for us. I think it would have made Eze's role even murkier. But it is what it is. It's behind us. I think we look a little bit light in that category, but here's the other thing. There is a window in January. If that continues to look to be the case, the odds that we're just out of the title race in January, I think are almost nil. So can we get William Saliba back? Can we reintegrate Timber more? Can Bruno get more integrated in the team? Can we collectively find goals across Odegaard and Eze and Bruno and Saka and Kai and Gyokeres and Tzolis? I think we can. And then in January, if it's a situation where we're saying we're good, but this front line has proven what we thought it might, which is it's just a little underpowered.

Elliot Smith1:21:49Then I think you have a case for going again and making sure the season can be everything you want it to be. But on balance, I feel very good about the start to the season. I think it's been a pretty difficult start to the season when the fixtures came out, I think we were concerned, especially following a World Cup. And we've navigated it better than I think most people probably thought. I don't know an anybody who would have said, Win the community shield, win it Napoli away, win in the League Cup, win all five of our league games. I mean, some people would have said that, but I, you know, I'm not sure that was ever realistic. So as it went, it's good. And we come back to Leeds at home and we'll see how it goes. So we've got a lot we're going to do during this break. Bad takes. You may say, Ellie, what do you mean bad takes? You just did all the bad takes. Well there's more. We'll have bad takes over on Patreon. We'll have a pod with giant gunner going over the situation at Chelsea financially and some of the debt crisis looming over the Premier League because I know finance chat gets the hashtag clicks. So we're excited about that. We might do some scouting videos. There's gonna be a lot of fun stuff. I hope you'll stay with us for that. And this time we'll we'll just fly by. Lewis, as ever, you have been, you know, I would say one of the best people on this podcast today. So thank you for being on it. Grade? What's your grade for yourself?

Lewis Ambrose1:22:57Top two for sure, no doubt. I Hey, that's I'm not I'm not here to grave myself. I'll leave that to everybody else. I'm I'm gonna go I'm

Elliot Smith1:23:05A plus, Lewis. A plus. Anything else before we go?

Lewis Ambrose1:23:09Gonna I'm gonna go and work on some bad takes, I guess.

Elliot Smith1:23:12Yeah, yeah. Hone those bad ticks. We need more. We only we only got 80 minutes of them this time. All right. Thanks everybody for being here. If you have any questions, let us know. Otherwise, we will see you on the next one. We love you. And we will talk to you after Arsenal 10 leads. No.